Downloading Down?
As Verrilli and Clement get up there today to argue Ken Starr's brief and execute turncoat Theodore Olson's strategy at SC against Taranto, let's take a look at what they're arguing about because one thing is clear. No matter what the high court decides in June... things are far from over. The labels can kick and scream all they want, they'll never stop P2P. But, they can significantly chill innovation and the tech engine that is our country and, that's pretty fuckin scary.
Also scary is the fact that none of the national morning shows had a word about the case, even though it's being argued today. KRON had a few sentences, which were at least favorable. But it really does concern me that this issue is so far under the radar for the public and, therefore, Congress. Hillary Clinton, who cosponsored Induce has apparently been successfully reeducated by college crowds and IPac, but, I'm continually confused and concerned about the lack of publicity for the side of this issue which represents a huge public interest.
According to Washington Post the Pew American Life Study says people are switching from downloading free music to paying for it. Not me, I switched to Apple, so I don't have to deal with the reverse infiltration from the free sites like you MSDrones. That's the only thing I can think of to sway people, unless you think millions suddenly got religion... or just love that DRM. Jon at P2Pnet sees it differently. I've looked at their studies, you can interpret for yourself.
Lots of people don't want to admit downloading on questionnaires, but Big Champagne looks at P2P traffic and consistently estimates a billion files a month. The lawsuits scared people for a while, but, the odds speak for themselves. A billion files a month, a few thousand lawsuits... that's only gonna scare people so long.
It is possible that overall free downloading may be leveling off. It's been around a few years now and so catch up has been played. When I first clued in I had to build up my library. I looked at everything I'd previously had on vinyl (it took me 3 years to find Robert Gordon's cover of Red Hot!) and CD, went through my rock encyclopedias, aging memory, you name it. It was an exhaustive and lengthy process. At one point my hard drive crashed and I had to start all over again.
Anyway, now, it's done. It's built. Yeah, I have to keep it up, keep it current, but that's just maintenance. My theory of the world is that I'm not alone in the world, if this is my experience, it's probably the experience of my Boomer buds and many more. So, it does make sense that downloading could level off... mine sure has... because I've already got the stuff. Yes, new folks are always coming into the broadband world, but maybe not as fast as that first rush.
Like I told you, it's about catalog and hits... at least for now. Now that I do have the library and ease of use, I am getting increasingly interested in lesser known stuff, which is where the paid sites do better... to an extent. Growing just as fast are the sites listed on the right, where artists are posting very decent music for free. So, I can see some transition... but not at these price points. They keep touting these 300M iTunes files as the next Messiah but... come on. I simply don't believe there's any great exodus from free to paid downloading.
Just wait till BitTorent gets the bugs out. Once those big budget films start torrenting out there to people's computerized home entertainment centers the shit is going to hit the fan big time. That's why they're taking such a stand now. The music's out, maybe they can accept that, but big film... now we're talking about another $30B domestic plus much more worldwide. We have to encourage these massive creative enterprises and we've got to pay for them somehow. The prices can come down somewhat but you're still talking at least $45M to make a nice film with your big stars and good effects, even when everyone's getting "fairly" paid (i.e.. actors not getting $20M for 10 days work).
Robert Rodriguez, who has his own studio, including the airplane hangers of the old Austin airport, runs his pics very efficiently. He's the envy of Lucas, Coppolla, PDI & Jobs the other Hollywood outsiders, because of that real estate coup. By keeping his pictures under $45M he gets the independence from ex-Miramax heads Bob & Harvey Weinstein that he needs, he does his own directing, editing, composing, writing and effects. His latest, Sin City, has half a dozen big stars. But, it's almost impossible to bring in a good looking film under that price and us paying an extra few bucks to our ISPs may not cover that. So, we'll see. It's a lot easier to make good music on the cheap than a good film.
So, P2P for music, the song is over, except for some niche stuff that may get left over for the labels. As to film, I hope MPAA steps up to the plate and gets in bed with BitTorrent because that is a whole different animal and those big popular films are gonna take it up the yinyang. With current P2P, the more popular a file is, the longer it takes to get it. With BitTorrent, the more popular a film is, the faster the download will be. This will do a lot to discourage the leading edge of our film industry. Companies like ILM, Zoetrope & Pixar require huge investment upfront and lots of time and talent.
So, as the second act opens here... we got troubles in River City. But, River City got its music man and so did we. They ended up taking control of their music and so will we.
Also scary is the fact that none of the national morning shows had a word about the case, even though it's being argued today. KRON had a few sentences, which were at least favorable. But it really does concern me that this issue is so far under the radar for the public and, therefore, Congress. Hillary Clinton, who cosponsored Induce has apparently been successfully reeducated by college crowds and IPac, but, I'm continually confused and concerned about the lack of publicity for the side of this issue which represents a huge public interest.
According to Washington Post the Pew American Life Study says people are switching from downloading free music to paying for it. Not me, I switched to Apple, so I don't have to deal with the reverse infiltration from the free sites like you MSDrones. That's the only thing I can think of to sway people, unless you think millions suddenly got religion... or just love that DRM. Jon at P2Pnet sees it differently. I've looked at their studies, you can interpret for yourself.
Lots of people don't want to admit downloading on questionnaires, but Big Champagne looks at P2P traffic and consistently estimates a billion files a month. The lawsuits scared people for a while, but, the odds speak for themselves. A billion files a month, a few thousand lawsuits... that's only gonna scare people so long.
It is possible that overall free downloading may be leveling off. It's been around a few years now and so catch up has been played. When I first clued in I had to build up my library. I looked at everything I'd previously had on vinyl (it took me 3 years to find Robert Gordon's cover of Red Hot!) and CD, went through my rock encyclopedias, aging memory, you name it. It was an exhaustive and lengthy process. At one point my hard drive crashed and I had to start all over again.
Anyway, now, it's done. It's built. Yeah, I have to keep it up, keep it current, but that's just maintenance. My theory of the world is that I'm not alone in the world, if this is my experience, it's probably the experience of my Boomer buds and many more. So, it does make sense that downloading could level off... mine sure has... because I've already got the stuff. Yes, new folks are always coming into the broadband world, but maybe not as fast as that first rush.
Like I told you, it's about catalog and hits... at least for now. Now that I do have the library and ease of use, I am getting increasingly interested in lesser known stuff, which is where the paid sites do better... to an extent. Growing just as fast are the sites listed on the right, where artists are posting very decent music for free. So, I can see some transition... but not at these price points. They keep touting these 300M iTunes files as the next Messiah but... come on. I simply don't believe there's any great exodus from free to paid downloading.
Just wait till BitTorent gets the bugs out. Once those big budget films start torrenting out there to people's computerized home entertainment centers the shit is going to hit the fan big time. That's why they're taking such a stand now. The music's out, maybe they can accept that, but big film... now we're talking about another $30B domestic plus much more worldwide. We have to encourage these massive creative enterprises and we've got to pay for them somehow. The prices can come down somewhat but you're still talking at least $45M to make a nice film with your big stars and good effects, even when everyone's getting "fairly" paid (i.e.. actors not getting $20M for 10 days work).
Robert Rodriguez, who has his own studio, including the airplane hangers of the old Austin airport, runs his pics very efficiently. He's the envy of Lucas, Coppolla, PDI & Jobs the other Hollywood outsiders, because of that real estate coup. By keeping his pictures under $45M he gets the independence from ex-Miramax heads Bob & Harvey Weinstein that he needs, he does his own directing, editing, composing, writing and effects. His latest, Sin City, has half a dozen big stars. But, it's almost impossible to bring in a good looking film under that price and us paying an extra few bucks to our ISPs may not cover that. So, we'll see. It's a lot easier to make good music on the cheap than a good film.
So, P2P for music, the song is over, except for some niche stuff that may get left over for the labels. As to film, I hope MPAA steps up to the plate and gets in bed with BitTorrent because that is a whole different animal and those big popular films are gonna take it up the yinyang. With current P2P, the more popular a file is, the longer it takes to get it. With BitTorrent, the more popular a film is, the faster the download will be. This will do a lot to discourage the leading edge of our film industry. Companies like ILM, Zoetrope & Pixar require huge investment upfront and lots of time and talent.
So, as the second act opens here... we got troubles in River City. But, River City got its music man and so did we. They ended up taking control of their music and so will we.
posted by Intervision at 9:17 AM
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