Monday, January 23, 2006

RIAA's Last Gasp

As we await the Pixar/Disney decision.... take a look at this story about how desperate the labels are getting. It is inevitable they will go after the ISPs... but that's a much different fight than the one they're waging against Patti Santangelo.

If they try that, I hope they have something better than contributory copyright infringement because the courts made it pretty clear in Grokster that you have to show intent and that intent based on the technology itself is not enough. They'll need to show the kind of stuff they had in Napster, internal memos showing intent to facilitate infringement of copyright. They'll never, ever win against the ISPs, and it will be so fun to watch them fry on the other side, as they see what it's like to be dwarfed.

If they think Congress will come to their aid, they're delusional. They can't even get Induce passed and there's a bill in committee right now that, if passed, will take it out of the courts, severely limiting the ability to prevail on contributory infringement. If anything, Congress is about to sway against them, even viv a vis the helpless American public.. God help them if they go up against the ISPs.

They'll end up, finally and mercifully, made into a utility, like water or cable TV, like we've been wanting for years now. Their commodity will ultimately be just so much bandwidth that they will provide under compulsory license, they'll probably have to track the the whole thing themselves. And then it will happen to the film industry.

And then they'll realize it really isn't worth it to make these big budget films, and then they'll start nominating all these story-driven dramas for Oscars and have people lined up around the block looking for small indies at Sundance and dozens of web-sites looking for content and filmmakers having lots of ways to make money off their films, with relatively low budgets and people will have lots more interesting films to watch and it will be easier to find them and... oh, that's now.

When you look at the choices and behavior of those in the know, you can see that they know exactly where the industry is headed.

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